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Residential Storage
Market To Surge

The global market for grid-connected residential photovoltaic solar installations coupled with energy storage is predicted to grow tenfold to reach more than 900 MW in 2018, up from just 90 MW in 2014, according to a new report from IHS Technology.

According to the report, the expanding opportunity for PV companies and battery manufacturers largely will be driven by the increasing attractiveness of PV for self-consumption, as well as by subsidies and increasing interest from homeowners in becoming more independent of the electricity grid.

Interestingly, the performance of the overall PV market has acted to prevent the energy storage market from taking off in line with expectations, IHS says. In particular, reduced government incentives coming in the wake of wider PV adoption levels are now serving to dampen many major residential solar markets where energy storage is likely to be adopted.

The high price of both batteries and the power-conversion devices needed to integrate them into PV systems has also remained a major inhibiting factor for the market. Although the average price of lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries, which account for the majority of residential PV energy storage installations, is estimated to have fallen by 20% in 2014, price continues to be a major concern for the industry, IHS says. The result is that profitable business models for PV energy storage are complex and only exist in a small number of niches, where subsidies and strong interest from end users have enabled the market to grow.

“In situations where a financial justification for adding energy storage to a residential PV system does exist, the business case is highly dependent on several variables, such as the levels of self-consumption that can actually be achieved and the development of retail electricity rates over the next 20 years,” says Sam Wilkinson, research manager for energy storage at IHS. “The fact that these variables are impossible to ensure and so difficult to predict makes the investment relatively insecure and has further hampered end user appetite for residential PV energy storage.”

The overall picture, however, will improve next year, IHS says. Li-ion prices are expected to fall by a further 15% in 2015. Moreover, IHS forecasts that the residential PV market will return to growth for the first time in three years. These factors will be critical to spurring a 90% expansion in residential PV energy storage in 2015.

The principal driver will be the increasing attractiveness of self-consuming the electricity produced by residential PV systems, IHS says. In many cases where retail electricity prices are relatively high in comparison to the cost of generating PV, it is more financially attractive to use the electricity produced by a PV system and save money off the electricity bill than it is to sell electricity back to the grid.

 

Latest PV Toxics
Scorecard Released

The Silicon Valley Toxics Coalition (SVTC) has released its 2014 Solar Scorecard, which ranks manufacturers of solar photovoltaic modules according to a range of environmental, sustainability and social factors.

Seven PV companies responded in detail to this fifth annual SVTC survey, representing 25.2% of the total module market share. The remainder of the information used to compile the scorecard was gathered from publicly available documentation. The PV manufacturers included in the 2014 Solar Scorecard represent approximately 75% of the industry.

SVTC recognized two companies - SolarWorld and Yingli - for responding to the Solar Scorecard survey every year since 2010. In addition to this recognition, SolarWorld has achieved the highest overall score across all five Solar Scorecards to date.

Trina, SunPower and Yingli earned the top scores in 2014. SolarWorld and REC Group remain among the top tier of industry environmental leaders, by SVTC’s reckoning. Ten PV manufacturers of the 37 scored by SVTC post annual hazardous chemical reduction targets on their websites or in sustainability reports.

“It’s critically important for companies to collect and report chemical use and emissions data,” says Dustin Mulvaney, an assistant professor at San Jose State University and SVTC’s science advisor. “The more transparency there is on this issue, the more likely it is that companies will be able to compete to reduce their emissions per PV module.”

 

Survey: Solar Customers Mostly Middle Class

Most people going solar in Massachusetts have household incomes (HHIs) of less than $150,000, according to a survey conducted by New England Clean Energy.

Mark Durrenberger, president of New England Clean Energy, says nearly 250 customers responded to the Hudson, Mass.-based installer’s survey on HHIs. The results show that people purchasing solar electricity systems, with or without financing, cross all income brackets, but predominantly, 67% earn less than $150,000 per household.

According to the survey, 35% have HHIs of less than $100,000 per year, 10% have a HHI of less than $50,000 and 13% earn $200,000 or more.

“Anti-solar forces in Arizona and other states are claiming that solar policies - in particular net metering, which compensates solar owners for their production at retail - benefit the rich at the expense of the poor. This argument assumes only the rich can install solar,” Durrenberger says. “We knew anecdotally that plenty of middle-class families and retirees on fixed incomes were going solar. Now, we have data confirming that people of all income brackets are installing solar to save and make money.”

Durrenberger says states with progressive solar policies, such as Massachusetts, enable virtually anyone with decent credit to go solar. Even those without the necessary credit rating - and those with bad roofs or who rent - can access solar through community solar gardens and virtual net metering.

Furthermore, he says, solar benefits utilities in ways just starting to be quantified.

New England Clean Energy’s anonymous, online survey of 460 customers was conducted between Oct. 23 and 29. Of those contacted, 244 completed the survey.

 

New U.S. Renewables Outpace Coal, Oil

Renewable energy sources accounted for more than two-fifths (40.61%) of all new U.S. electrical generating capacity put in service during the first three quarters of this year, according to the latest Energy Infrastructure Update report from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Only natural gas provided more new generating capacity.

Citing the FERC statistics, renewable energy advocacy group the SUN DAY Campaign says new capacity from renewables so far this year is almost 35 times that of coal, oil and nuclear combined (3,598 MW vs. 104 MW).

For the month of September alone, renewables accounted for over two-thirds of the 603 MW of new generating capacity put in service, with 367 MW (60.86%) coming from wind and 41 MW (6.80%) coming from solar.

Of the 8,860 MW of new U.S. capacity from all sources installed since Jan. 1, 187 “units” of solar accounted for 1,671 MW (18.86%), followed by 28 units of wind totaling 1,614 MW (18.22%), seven units of hydropower equaling 141 MW (1.59%), 38 units of biomass making up 140 MW (1.58%), and five units of geothermal totaling 32 MW (0.36%).

The balance came from 41 units of natural gas totaling 5,153 MW (58.16%), one 71 MW unit of nuclear (0.80%), 11 units of oil equaling 33 MW (0.37%), and six units of “other” totaling 7 MW (0.08%). There has been no new coal capacity added thus far in 2014, the SUN DAY Campaign notes.

Comparing the first nine months of 2014 to the same period in 2013, the organization says new U.S. generating capacity from renewable energy sources grew by 11.8% (3,598 MW vs. 3,218 MW).

Renewable energy sources now account for 16.35% of total installed operating capacity in the U.S. - up from 15.68% a year earlier: hydro - 8.45%, wind - 5.35%, biomass - 1.38%, solar - 0.84%, and geothermal steam - 0.33%. Renewable energy capacity is now greater than that of nuclear (9.23%) and oil (3.97%) combined.

“The steady and rapid growth of renewable energy is unlikely to abate as prices continue to drop and the technologies continue to improve,” says Ken Bossong, executive director of the SUN DAY Campaign.

 

Solar Helped Calif. Grid During Summer

Solar and wind power helped the California grid maintain reliability during a challenging summer this year. According to the California Independent System Operator (ISO), grid operators were up against heat waves, historic drought conditions and major wildfires.

The ISO says this summer’s highest level of demand reached 45,090 MW at 4:53 p.m. on Sept. 15, 2014. This compares to 45,097 MW set on June 28, 2013, and 46,846 MW on Aug. 13, 2012. The ISO’s highest peak on record is 50,270 MW on July 24, 2006.

On a local level, the ISO says Southern California set new demand records that underscore the impact from hot temperatures recorded during the summer, especially along the coast.

For example, the San Diego Gas & Electric area experienced record use on Sept. 15 and then topped the next day with an all-time record demand of 4,895 MW. The standing record peak was 4,684 MW set on Sept. 27, 2010.

The Southern California Edison area also experienced heavy loads, reaching 23,266 MW on Sept. 15. According to the ISO, this was just shy of the area’s all-time peak of 23,388 MW set on Sept. 7, 2011.

During high demand, grid operators often rely on any and all available resources to help keep the lights on, including renewable energy. However, the ISO says there were 1,628 MW less of in-state hydropower this summer because of historic drought conditions.

Meanwhile, wind and solar power facilities have performed well so far this year. In fact, wind set an ISO production record on April 12, with 4,768 MW, and solar production hit a new peak on Sept. 29, with 4,903 MW.

The ISO says it has about 5,900 MW of wind resources and about 5,500 MW of utility solar resources connected to the grid. Counting all renewable resources (including small hydro, biomass, biogas and geothermal), the ISO notes that it has 15,226 MW of clean power on the grid.

 

U.K. Utility-Scale Solar Booming

The U.K.’s Department of Energy & Climate Change has confirmed that the government’s Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROC) scheme will close to ground-mount solar PV systems sized at 5 MW or larger at the end of March 2015. As a result, IHS forecasts a boom in installations in the fourth quarter of this year (Q4’14) and peaking in the first quarter of next year (Q1’15).

IHS Technology forecasts solar PV installations in the U.K. to reach 2.8 GW this year - revised down from its earlier prediction of 3.2 GW - as projects are pushed to the end of the year and early 2015.

IHS predicts that before the ROC scheme ends, in Q4’14 and Q1’15 combined, utility-scale installations will reach nearly 1.8 GW. For 2015, IHS has trimmed its forecast to 3.2 GW. The reason for this being that many ground-mount projects have failed to secure planning permissions.